Is a global epidemic in our future?

We’ve seen the flu reach epidemic proportions this winter, with many cities closing schools in an effort to contain it. The 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, commonly called the "swine flu," was declared to be a global pandemic until August 2010. Ebola has crossed international borders. Chikungunya disease has jumped continents and its source is now being found in the states. And now measles is coursing through the US again after totally eradicating it decades ago. Cholera is plaguing third-world countries. In 2003, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) crossed the world, originating in Asia and reaching Canada in less than a day. In 2012, a new virus, Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS -CoV) arrived, infecting as many as 1,000 people, leaving 356 dead as of 5 February 2015. (“Are we ready for the next global epidemic?,” n.d.) Such episodes of emerging and re-emerging epidemic diseases are an on-going threat to the security of our health all across the globe

Disease has always been with us. As early as 429- 426 BC nearly 100,000 people died of a plague similar to Typhoid. The Bubonic plague killed nearly 70% of the population of Europe. The Seneca Indian nation was nearly wiped out by measles. During the 1700’s thousands of Americans died from measles, smallpox, influenza and yellow fever. Flu pandemics killed one million people between 1889-90, two million in the late 1950’s and another one million in the late 1960’s. Then there is the HIV/Aids pandemic, which has killed more than THIRTY MILLION people since it’s emergence in 1960.  (“List of epidemics,” 2015). Nearly half of all annual deaths caused by infectious diseases can be attributed to three diseases in particular: AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Combined, they cause over 300 million illnesses annually, including more than 5 million deaths (Daddar & Nirupama, 2015).

Many of these epidemics/pandemics occurred at a time when there was no such thing as hopping on a jet and traveling around the world. Today in our very mobile world, we can travel to the other side of the globe in less than a day. There is no screening to see whether a person is sick or not. How many times have you been on a plane listening to someone coughing, hacking, sneezing, sniffling and blowing their noses? And what if you are that unfortunate soul to sit next to one of these culprits? I will never forget being on a plane right after 9/11, when the woman sitting next to me took out a surgical mask and placed it on her face. At first, I worried about some sort of terrorist attack but quickly realized that type of mask would not be sufficient protection. So I asked her if she was sick. She said no, and she intended to stay well. She was a doctor and told me that airplanes are one of the biggest cesspools of germs we expose ourselves to. She was ahead of her time but very wise.

There are plenty of studies revolving around airplanes and our global highly mobile society as a mode of transferring disease. Daddar and Nirupama demonstrated how latent epidemics can potentially evolve into a pandemic instantaneously due to globally mobile human population in recent times, as can be seen in the ongoing Ebola epidemic in West Africa (Daddar & Nirupama, 2015). Their hope was that their research would aid in developing a specific set of preventative processes from the individual to international levels when developing strategies to reducing the effects of an epidemic outbreak. As early as 2005, papers were written on the role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics (Colizza, Barrat, Barthélemy, & Vespignani, 2006). 

The arts can be used to educate the world about immunizations, warning signs, preventative measures and to provide updates on the existence and locations of disease. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is a technical collaboration of existing institutions and networks who pool human and technical resources for the rapid identification, confirmation and response to outbreaks of international importance. The Network provides an operational framework to link this expertise and skill to keep the international community constantly alert to the threat of outbreaks and ready to respond (“WHO | Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network,” n.d.). They are part of the World Health Organization and their website is http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/. I for one will be checking it whenever I am planning a flight. What about you?

Are we ready for the next global epidemic? - CNN.com. (n.d.). Retrieved February 18, 2015, from http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/13/health/are-we-ready-for-global-outbreak/index.html

Colizza, V., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., & Vespignani, A. (2006). The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103(7), 2015–2020. doi:10.1073/pnas.0510525103

Daddar, S., & Nirupama, N. (2015). The potential of recurrent epidemics and pandemics in a highly mobile global society. Natural Hazards, 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1628-7

List of epidemics. (2015, February 17). In Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_epidemics&oldid=647529322

WHO | Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network. (n.d.). Retrieved February 20, 2015, from http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/